{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.367415+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.374244+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.398696+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.412324+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.786829+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.787778+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.961641+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:48.969143+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:49.215549+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.8}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:49.222808+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:49.512917+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:49.546098+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:49.791649+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:49.801262+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:50.098050+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:50.114040+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:50.162644+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:50.395083+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:50.421807+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:50.704781+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.69}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:50.984516+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.130072+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.284637+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.326959+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.402890+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.442350+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.597517+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.603807+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.767711+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.815164+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.917419+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:51.974199+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:52.130423+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:52.259792+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:52.352490+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:52.551570+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:52.558797+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:52.966010+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.25}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.107749+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.109879+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.241345+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.420197+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.441187+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.484147+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.732715+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.790096+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:53.895445+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:54.073111+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:54.082237+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:54.190082+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:54.368592+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:54.738663+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:54.886671+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.026180+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.035468+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.159406+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.282101+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.388567+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.599934+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.611689+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.847547+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:55.899246+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.068881+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.122820+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.195144+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.295064+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.635673+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.798314+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.924728+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:56.937435+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.058561+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.225924+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.239912+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.261628+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.508148+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.614497+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.678570+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.711221+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.883035+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:57.967036+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:58.042368+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:58.138755+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:58.271580+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:58.349624+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:58.543131+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:58.957459+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:59.105011+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:59.274933+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:59.473503+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:59.587925+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:59.644502+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:13:59.827775+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.040789+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.137215+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.185560+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.593284+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.645854+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.664158+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.858801+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.902734+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.954438+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:00.980195+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.350988+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.357455+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.439689+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.625343+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.702484+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.767115+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.900468+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:01.964013+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:02.144162+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:02.234142+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:02.447907+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:02.670225+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:02.681701+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:02.793603+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:02.868108+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.049155+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.171931+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.187111+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.197065+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.420935+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.477204+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.489766+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.614079+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.753935+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.759108+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.778362+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:03.895588+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:04.183229+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:04.228203+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:04.251789+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.8}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:04.742001+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:04.778836+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.022739+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.049249+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.071280+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.345081+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.485354+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.505181+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.644329+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.881767+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.909790+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:05.924930+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.262589+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.264864+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.266521+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.268589+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.626581+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.632196+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.644167+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.712684+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:06.966326+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:07.013533+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:07.033741+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:07.159157+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:07.319413+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:07.428973+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:07.702738+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:08.035672+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:08.577274+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:09.343212+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:09.530719+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:09.557656+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:09.606171+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.101239+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.109592+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.116715+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.520785+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.529264+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.583525+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.703085+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:10.984196+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:11.169866+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:11.218403+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:11.625047+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:11.989039+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:12.027212+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:12.547761+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:12.597404+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:12.915383+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:12.923798+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:12.955979+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:13.635357+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:13.677909+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:13.702363+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:13.759262+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.195944+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.213049+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.243037+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.538024+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.570479+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.589215+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.808509+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:14.897796+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:15.061663+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:15.279891+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:15.298540+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:15.578433+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:15.686273+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:15.871658+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:15.910220+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:16.136789+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:16.603016+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:16.820424+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:17.281486+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:17.611239+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:17.663307+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:17.885849+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:18.495461+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:20.074039+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:20.278292+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:20.339487+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:20.557280+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:20.718464+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:21.134391+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:21.217682+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:21.716797+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:22.505015+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:23.481359+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:23.482987+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:24.058808+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:24.107911+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:24.285788+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:24.486449+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:24.533808+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:24.541257+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.25}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:24.827876+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:25.121402+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:25.141804+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:25.178314+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:25.434672+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:25.634325+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:25.898463+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:25.991723+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:26.311649+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:26.441691+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:26.589469+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:26.839713+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:26.990896+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:27.214566+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:27.624960+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:28.380858+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:28.545685+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:28.789210+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:28.899608+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:29.147009+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:29.256205+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:29.468373+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:29.610156+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:29.800215+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:29.919047+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:30.029274+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:30.169834+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:30.223331+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:30.374245+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:30.732455+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:30.804958+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:31.266720+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:31.341105+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:31.458516+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:31.468431+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:31.850065+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:31.903451+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:31.947334+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:32.020489+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:32.445407+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:32.447150+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:32.778595+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:33.073633+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:33.392310+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:33.471825+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:33.716771+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:33.848197+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:33.935016+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.151385+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.218469+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.69}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.243770+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.266223+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.478435+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.511923+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.548188+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:34.712376+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:35.031223+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:35.140239+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:35.159060+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:35.515009+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:35.536201+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:35.955595+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:36.047840+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:36.055734+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:36.197132+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:36.838933+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.021021+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.035859+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.041306+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.351022+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.541286+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.543052+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.576119+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.853233+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.964723+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.967796+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:37.981852+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:38.149055+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:38.381804+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:38.411498+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:38.446143+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:38.668588+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:38.927963+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.010478+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.070876+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.079146+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.245378+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.321044+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.351238+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.368703+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.691924+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.728557+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.766053+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:39.827302+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:40.259042+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:40.442801+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:40.491005+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:40.673580+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:41.093983+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:41.168937+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:41.191101+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:41.452051+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:41.705221+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:41.744385+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:41.893007+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:42.065156+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:42.271101+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:42.408343+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:43.093348+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:43.352447+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:43.461790+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:43.684607+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:43.874664+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:44.068498+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:44.388658+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:44.433110+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:44.545443+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:45.231199+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:45.696405+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:45.956798+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:46.332049+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:46.444527+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:46.629099+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:46.868715+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:46.875437+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.118330+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.155674+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.385244+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.577577+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.705433+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.775713+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.839627+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:47.974393+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.087330+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.260235+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.392268+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.578262+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.650531+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.673766+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.921734+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:48.958637+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:49.017085+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.26}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:49.229395+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:49.443154+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:49.541384+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:49.591128+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:49.759668+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:49.886777+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.017870+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.207902+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.231254+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.390327+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.458675+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.543442+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.587033+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.795069+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:50.843417+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:51.028136+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:51.310437+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:51.584790+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:51.599462+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:51.803970+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.097843+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.107561+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.175933+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.408049+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.460320+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.517276+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.525931+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.897444+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:52.920993+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:53.115086+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:53.124100+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:53.588306+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:53.611752+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:53.715070+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:53.722835+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:53.907852+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.105768+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.125402+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.533641+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.546629+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.604806+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.771154+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.802540+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.825266+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:54.928855+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:55.218369+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:55.254175+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:55.384823+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:55.386298+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:55.744787+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:55.820884+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.060684+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.105214+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.287080+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.354717+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.405540+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.671109+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.753427+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:56.805597+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:57.058714+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:57.326158+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:57.449999+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:57.450500+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:57.716489+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:57.805112+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:57.875410+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:58.011041+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:58.335823+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:58.534350+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:58.595155+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:58.603310+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:58.722880+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:58.978691+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:59.111499+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:59.163546+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:59.275991+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:59.635625+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:59.642678+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:59.667283+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:14:59.780700+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.049970+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.145623+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.166127+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.215155+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.570468+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.717278+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.723428+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:00.787789+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:01.199822+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:01.301568+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:01.338875+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:01.447087+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:01.587122+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:01.784857+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:01.988105+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:02.065566+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:02.172588+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:02.506006+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:02.556888+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:02.676971+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:03.342741+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:03.384697+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:03.468356+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:03.750149+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:03.818961+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:04.150739+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:04.181516+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:04.364891+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:04.455081+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:05.012238+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:05.039852+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:05.331601+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:05.513077+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:05.827598+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:05.829081+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:05.911836+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:06.072214+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:06.158895+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:06.342887+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:06.728698+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:06.779548+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:06.784279+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:06.994581+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:07.301895+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:07.473531+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:07.557231+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:07.652166+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:07.685016+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.69}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:07.795067+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:07.839459+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.076882+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.083066+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.090748+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.161566+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.419868+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.440190+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.454920+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.480949+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:08.936197+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.033139+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.034642+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.137700+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.345958+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.432478+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.433200+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.644150+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.964531+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:09.979482+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:10.038681+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:10.242102+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:10.362620+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:10.445047+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:10.492828+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:11.138597+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:11.144768+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:11.247852+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:11.281390+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:11.617016+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:11.625946+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:11.773711+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:12.047392+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:12.175073+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:12.261373+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:12.583650+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:12.821293+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:12.909257+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:12.921063+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.103041+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.273986+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.382700+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.383876+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.25}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.611236+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.789187+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.946347+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:13.992711+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:14.040014+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:14.151213+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:14.389423+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:14.407356+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:14.658842+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:14.666928+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:14.940901+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.074257+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.100006+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.161126+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.303052+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.427340+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.557781+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.563992+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.778600+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.800052+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:15.980444+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:16.022665+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:16.254190+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:16.273559+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:16.375379+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:16.823904+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:16.896154+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.037677+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.085606+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.200523+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.204692+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.368293+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.394095+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.486530+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.499317+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.662577+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.766873+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.780620+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.813205+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:17.916329+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.095806+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.105708+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.114715+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.321331+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.387213+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.25}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.393393+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.464978+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.791989+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.869390+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.882262+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:18.952396+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.069757+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.180669+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.253113+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.373468+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.393657+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.558219+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.613583+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.676083+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.797351+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.945721+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:19.968496+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.063478+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.133766+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.202417+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.398656+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.399879+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.555279+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.599243+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.800508+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.870009+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:20.877849+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.128083+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.201194+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.406250+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.485510+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.502818+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.681344+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.691105+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.785678+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.791740+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.935869+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:21.954072+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.16}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.260389+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.263276+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.328389+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.451872+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.510732+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.591905+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.603883+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.771849+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.883387+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:22.998932+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:23.037840+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:23.152442+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:23.347030+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:23.628598+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:23.879312+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:23.930041+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:24.184964+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:24.313960+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:24.472394+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:24.620234+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:24.828163+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:24.870145+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:24.890163+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:25.863614+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:26.276278+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:26.313904+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:26.334835+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:26.569581+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:26.687671+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:26.754500+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:26.809664+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.002969+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.221288+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.226832+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.229326+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.542615+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.653701+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.675019+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.692294+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:27.996140+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.016410+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.044599+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.131105+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.300896+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.376871+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.391272+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.428721+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.552864+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.689550+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.714588+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.742179+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.875844+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.8}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:28.997918+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.170017+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.295300+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.490479+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.16}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.539711+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.639108+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.641297+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.792300+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.835082+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.904821+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:29.949921+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.136304+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.193845+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.431859+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.630881+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.696718+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.745011+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.946914+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.989590+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:30.994807+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:31.405832+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:31.422523+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:31.762775+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:31.766929+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:31.830558+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:31.959929+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.165955+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.176770+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.264419+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.331261+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.435233+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.440250+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.574716+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.734432+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.739265+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.755281+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:32.884767+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.051745+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.088017+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.221435+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.357071+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.619315+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.680360+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.766292+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:33.784062+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.002702+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.055467+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.137361+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.177385+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.386657+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.483453+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.490952+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.641167+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.682423+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.758475+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.820846+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.952286+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:34.958367+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:35.132827+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:35.436433+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:35.566463+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:35.654549+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:35.724236+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:35.907699+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:35.993486+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.048727+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.083187+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.350308+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.371387+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.405113+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.494483+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.792034+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.793508+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:36.998065+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.064044+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.459776+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.470149+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.486958+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.591327+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.859743+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.879564+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:37.941371+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.063007+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.265363+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.357245+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.389417+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.452005+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.651044+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.943099+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:38.978489+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:39.115151+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:39.387788+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:39.458515+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:39.502589+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:39.739023+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:39.848537+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:39.888905+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.023658+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.164431+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.227530+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.294047+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.353464+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.542532+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.639016+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.648060+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.694442+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:40.881454+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.158130+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.188555+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.212685+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.345301+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.476774+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.505423+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.542258+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.687890+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.805312+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.827724+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:41.879894+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.084577+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.093783+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.186207+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.219082+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.416058+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.424601+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.586709+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.602315+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.703770+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.765045+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.888116+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:42.901419+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.199498+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.208948+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.370726+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.386971+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.549831+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.554980+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.674108+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.770236+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:43.866497+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.051053+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.080729+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.126169+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.174229+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.366436+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.429948+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.460072+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.469439+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.759808+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.831594+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.833491+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:44.835603+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.154068+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.220626+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.239722+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.246720+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.457097+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.543364+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.679028+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.809968+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:45.910652+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.090760+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.151216+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.152607+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.305016+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.476443+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.520886+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.686693+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.726308+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.939259+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.16}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:46.986395+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.223434+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.281981+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.525104+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.615042+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.700228+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.796270+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.879830+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:47.910923+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:48.064846+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:48.149161+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:48.261300+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:48.270163+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:48.400970+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:48.894823+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:49.274654+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:49.342352+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:49.444373+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:49.456890+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:49.818489+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:49.863539+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:49.976082+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:50.009711+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:50.135626+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:50.141590+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:50.330651+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:50.362508+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:50.811504+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:50.931170+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.015237+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.243735+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.286254+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.363393+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.684084+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.685820+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.717803+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:51.764921+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.048192+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.9}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.084520+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.092654+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.273980+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.604272+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.628766+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.25}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.642944+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:52.910864+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.142226+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.182420+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.192554+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.306110+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.689236+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.691502+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.693454+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:53.936025+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:54.234247+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:54.245733+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:54.313373+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:54.412565+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:54.727183+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:15:54.751150+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:27.652195+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:27.657663+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:27.758464+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:27.950388+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.035157+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.040216+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.164211+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.244625+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.265158+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.365799+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.470604+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.479550+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.567172+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.665912+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.733469+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.758849+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.867701+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:28.935819+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.064172+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.090317+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.147808+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.285678+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.310132+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.370362+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.495515+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.517455+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.572836+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.691539+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.736399+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.860732+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:29.914838+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.429501+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.540194+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.622308+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.633040+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.737111+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.832452+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.848368+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:30.967099+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.042546+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.100310+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.156711+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.241401+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.301658+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.417051+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.455124+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.583818+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.634289+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.671742+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.779898+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.841801+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:31.901309+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.011899+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.121736+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.130115+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.192052+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.16}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.328948+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.360619+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.393088+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.542345+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.585669+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.762243+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.784494+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.893733+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:32.984706+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.009997+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.191150+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.196451+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.237306+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.406895+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.417372+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.432742+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.615227+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.653435+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.693105+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.863200+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.877597+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:33.902946+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.070436+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.089985+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.102734+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.116342+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.285192+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.285677+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.305177+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.305691+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.463607+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.471054+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.539795+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.586508+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.670853+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.701867+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.755582+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.775520+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.850061+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.886438+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.944224+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:34.993423+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.028493+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.080528+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.142622+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.191563+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.234599+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.256296+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.369031+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.382852+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.427976+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.443041+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.577594+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.616250+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.630360+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.657557+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.806969+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.832532+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.881103+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:35.881797+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.014662+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.037160+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.087853+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.117083+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.228018+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.254961+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.293010+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.338993+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.463483+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.497444+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.518571+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.543455+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.664773+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.690261+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.720321+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.751055+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.844857+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.900609+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.910712+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:36.923006+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.034030+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.082840+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.117327+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.177244+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.266567+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.279661+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.301350+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.359388+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.491445+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.512202+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.547688+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.600136+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.693539+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.699185+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.746370+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.805436+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.868378+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.902774+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.954066+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:37.998773+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.108619+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.147247+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.232370+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.279316+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.336965+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.368666+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.432766+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.483861+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.536105+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.607390+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.633838+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.716360+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.730230+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.790915+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.818322+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.902594+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:38.928394+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.027273+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.027844+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.101080+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.144480+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.259908+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.260507+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.278864+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.371098+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.459417+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.517400+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.517950+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.599503+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.658332+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.698287+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.764746+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.827327+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.26}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.832005+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.952542+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:39.963745+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.031421+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.045922+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.132575+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.237631+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.238172+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.68}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.242850+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.316539+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.429333+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.457897+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.488308+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.562833+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.631071+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.638335+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.678571+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 73, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.770850+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.857678+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.863530+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.915081+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:40.981129+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.080305+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.128251+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.136872+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.153749+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.261274+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.325386+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.338075+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.358698+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.442353+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.523131+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.531194+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.570460+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.624641+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.738439+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.763914+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.772431+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.828967+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.934704+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.941939+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:41.969503+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.007124+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.123861+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.125091+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.165410+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.179839+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.305366+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.333156+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.341147+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.368231+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.486512+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.526675+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.538062+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 92, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.565166+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.711267+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.736032+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.8}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.783172+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.788436+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.897596+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:42.913352+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.062875+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.063711+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.108630+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.129386+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.283929+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.289955+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.342616+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.343669+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.497782+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.512829+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.573905+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.593631+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.693757+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.701689+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.751382+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.782769+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.881702+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.887288+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:43.954560+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.020200+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.088832+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.145890+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.218348+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.15}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.225479+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.258602+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.335340+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.430192+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.439753+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.444350+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.537147+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.619355+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.663968+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 25, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.737165+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.742483+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.804727+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.860025+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.937974+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:44.945059+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.029172+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.040794+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.139066+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.149213+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.211284+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.228546+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.336588+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.403113+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.428612+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.477953+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.548686+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.597593+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.621637+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.670639+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.763879+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.834144+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.839741+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.903341+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:45.987717+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.049292+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.073078+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.167922+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.174263+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.280513+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.281221+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.396738+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.397540+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.475221+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.482448+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.588250+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.620373+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 32, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.658302+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.684719+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.810089+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.811055+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.895641+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:46.923406+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 51, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.023244+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.024200+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.087469+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.122361+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.218371+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.228378+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.301501+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.315274+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.402158+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.413089+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.495760+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.500817+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.582912+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.589303+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.678653+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.704290+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.808698+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.897291+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.898692+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:47.916693+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.005233+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.101783+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.119299+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.150357+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.183894+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.337358+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.338933+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.381484+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.415405+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.637814+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 97, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.639391+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.787049+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 39, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.940247+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.941679+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:48.950117+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.078733+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.275872+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.277497+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.278957+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.376503+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.692930+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.694250+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.695351+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:49.843426+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.339056+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.341064+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.342757+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.344513+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 20, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.733654+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.789166+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.791085+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:50.792111+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.096918+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.098286+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.116682+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.295969+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.409660+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.493727+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.495209+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.694126+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.821332+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.822730+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.933816+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 95, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:51.935522+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.208803+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.267376+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 62, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.268954+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.284181+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.559555+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.659277+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 64, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.665566+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.670571+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 71, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.858199+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 90, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:52.866294+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.000060+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.001585+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 48, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.153602+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.8}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.330821+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.472643+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.474285+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.652617+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.815751+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.818412+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.825973+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:53.984704+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.224467+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.225670+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.226727+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.228168+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.424609+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 37, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.431466+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.471505+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.472154+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 3, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.637453+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.662276+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 66, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.667462+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.668234+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.850768+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 26, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.876133+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.881556+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:54.886447+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.050664+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 1, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.072379+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 82, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.077878+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.115496+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.240633+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.255706+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.293827+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.322572+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.412652+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 22, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.443849+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.508785+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 50, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.538704+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 35, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.596355+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.614839+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 4, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.698344+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.771482+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 81, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.802702+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.843057+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.890551+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:55.983469+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 9, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.002668+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 54, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.062541+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 63, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.082125+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.24}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.208906+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.245457+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.271366+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.312464+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.436869+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.16}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.453534+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.513996+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.605360+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 34, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.607391+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.723300+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.759360+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.795932+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.827692+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.947771+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.954847+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 30, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:56.975854+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.035274+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 65, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.152553+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.158100+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.211673+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 27, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.71}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.251829+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 85, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.346060+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.366524+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.412002+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.468866+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.535445+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.564507+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 41, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.616767+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 5, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.642667+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 56, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.732879+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.792504+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.849243+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:57.853839+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.008141+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.015392+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.08}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.036281+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.072089+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.204653+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.217470+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 55, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.219123+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.293314+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 21, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.438987+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.460018+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.484799+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 11, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.490519+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.642529+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.647109+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.669502+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.673990+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.821752+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.840404+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.873227+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 8, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:58.882826+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 14, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.005945+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 47, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.030709+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.068091+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 93, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.105512+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.214178+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.241082+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.242079+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.320321+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.419899+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.427371+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.435102+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 17, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.525114+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.82}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.630676+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 79, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.76}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.672072+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.691122+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 80, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.711219+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 74, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.93}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.802761+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 42, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.865314+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.891921+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:54:59.906610+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 59, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.028801+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 68, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.080759+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 61, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.78}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.096468+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 40, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.17}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.144623+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.219602+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.301785+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 53, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.306535+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 10, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.343213+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.399554+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 98, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.491028+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.543387+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.562892+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.84}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.577731+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.692579+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.728318+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.774330+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 87, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.796003+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 83, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.91}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.889379+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:00.967338+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 28, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.011064+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 49, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.020874+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.081078+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 75, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.213085+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 12, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.213837+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 2, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.79}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.235658+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 18, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.258624+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.403220+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 69, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.433791+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.456617+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 46, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.487289+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.644676+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.687731+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 89, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.18}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.7}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.701125+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 19, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 509, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.706100+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 16, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.873703+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 72, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.899840+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 57, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.92}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.938458+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:01.977389+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 44, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.071359+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 84, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.128202+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 67, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.184430+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 99, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.196782+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 52, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.350491+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.388658+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.23}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.69}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.402418+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.421158+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 6, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.601531+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 36, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.21}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.607663+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 29, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $100,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 535, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.627890+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 24, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.14}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.680384+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.834508+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.72}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.845626+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 7, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.852384+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 58, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2030.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030."}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin's USD daily closing price never reaches $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 529, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:02.876542+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 43, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.048870+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 33, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.058422+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 45, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.081857+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 38, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.097080+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 88, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.269281+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.269992+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.04}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.288517+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 78, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 401, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.341709+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 86, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.74}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.463796+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.83}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.491650+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "complement", "replicate": 15, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "no": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin fail to reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"yes": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.1}, "no": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.81}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 403, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.533903+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 70, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin does not reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "Bitcoin reaches both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 at least once by December 31, 2035.", "false": "Bitcoin fails to reach at least one of $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.07}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 653, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.557412+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 23, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.22}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.75}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.665519+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 94, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.700525+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 60, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.743451+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 91, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?"}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.2}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.77}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 383, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.794045+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 76, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.12}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:55:03.856558+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 96, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 415, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:59:00.104282+00:00", "criteria_mode": "paired", "spec": "partition", "replicate": 31, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be above $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less."}}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin's USD daily closing price on December 31, 2035 be at or below $1,000,000?", "criteria": {"true": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is $1,000,000 or less.", "false": "The BTC/USD daily close on December 31, 2035 is strictly greater than $1,000,000."}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.19}, "not_above": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.73}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 541, "output_tokens": 38}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:59:00.118328+00:00", "criteria_mode": "empty", "spec": "joint_bounds", "replicate": 100, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"one": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}, "both": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach both $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 by December 31, 2035?", "criteria": {"true": "", "false": ""}}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"one": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.11}, "ten": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.03}, "both": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.06}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 463, "output_tokens": 52}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:59:00.139784+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_time", "replicate": 13, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"short": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2030?"}, "long": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"short": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.05}, "long": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.09}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 369, "output_tokens": 36}}}
{"timestamp_utc": "2026-09-21T16:59:00.140363+00:00", "criteria_mode": "omitted", "spec": "nested_threshold", "replicate": 77, "request": {"model": "jev-latest", "state": "Forecast origin is 2026-09-21. Use the BTC/USD daily closing price consistently. A price target is reached if a daily close meets or exceeds it. Return a probability for each proposition.", "questions": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "instructions": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000,000 by December 31, 2035?"}}}, "response": {"model": "jev-1.13.0", "answers": {"lower": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.13}, "higher": {"type": "noul", "noul": 0.02}}, "usage": {"input_tokens": 371, "output_tokens": 36}}}