How Well Calibrated Are Jev’s Probabilities?
Jev is an AI forecasting service that assigns probabilities to yes-or-no questions. Each question can include true and false text defining what counts as yes or no. With no deadline and both fields set to empty strings, Jev gave 35% to bitcoin will reach 100 million and 14% to bitcoin will reach 1 million, averaging 100 calls each. Calibration asks whether forecasts assigned 20% come true about one time in five across many independent events. ...