Forecasting on npow http://npow.github.io/tags/forecasting/ Recent content in Forecasting on npow Hugo -- 0.146.0 en-us Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 How Well Calibrated Are Jev’s Probabilities? http://npow.github.io/posts/jev-calibration/ Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 http://npow.github.io/posts/jev-calibration/ Jev gave Bitcoin a higher chance of reaching $100 million than $1 million. The event definition moved the odds too.